[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061814 COR
AZZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...UT THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061814Z - 062030Z

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NERN AZ

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST OVER MUCH OF UT INTO N CNTRL AND NERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.

UPPER VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD
THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT
SPREADING NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND MUCH OF UT. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S. DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIMIT
MLCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND UT
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

37411128 38821234 39821374 41181338 41621160 40290955
38990918 36290949 36091070 

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