[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041611 
FLZ000-041815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041611Z - 041815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS THINNING AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. 12Z RAOB DATA FROM
MIAMI AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
S FL IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH SFC-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. MULTICELLS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORM-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

..DIAL.. 05/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

26778010 26008019 25308060 25348094 25898129 26158176
26588156 26878101 26968058 

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