[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041545 
FLZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...

VALID 041545Z - 041745Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA WWD TO S OF MELBOURNE.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S PERSIST NEAR
AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES
TO BE REDUCED HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE ANVIL DEBRIS ORIGINATING FROM
LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN GULF AS WELL AS THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
EARLY CONVECTION. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN GULF TO DECREASE AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER INLAND. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS ARE RESULTING IN
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL AND S FL GENERALLY S
OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PERSISTENT BUT MODEST SSWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD...AND STORMS
MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 05/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

27418008 26838119 26568201 27318247 28078282 28868321
29258303 29538245 29798185 29918112 28868061 

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