[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041030 
FLZ000-041300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041030Z - 041300Z

ISOLATED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL FL EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

RADAR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS NEAR A WARM
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WAS
EVIDENT IN VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. A
CONTINUATION OF THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY PROMPT ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WAS TOPPED BY 30-40KT MID LEVEL
FLOW RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. WHILE STRONGER ASCENT IS FCST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE/CLOUD
PROCESSES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW INTENSE CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE FOREMOST
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED IF
INTENSITY/COVERAGE TRENDS DICTATE.

..CARBIN.. 05/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

27968048 27188118 27458261 28578267 29328264 29998229
30308139 

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