[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020802 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-021400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PNHDL...WRN OK PNHDL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 020802Z - 021400Z

VERY UNUSUAL EARLY MAY SNOWSTORM WAS EVOLVING OVER NERN NM AND PARTS
OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EARLY TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
COULD LOCALLY APPROACH 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR BASED ON LATEST
SHORT-TERM AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE
RATES IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM LVS ENEWD TO EXTREME NWRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...HEAVY WET SNOW
COULD SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AFTER DAYBREAK.

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA WAS CONFIRMING MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT OF
VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. A
WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF INTENSE SLOPED ASCENT WAS OCCURRING IN A
SATURATED LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...DIABATIC PROCESSES HAVE PRODUCED A DEEP LAYER OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES... ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WET SNOW DEVELOPING EAST WITH TIME.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ZONE OF
FOCUSED ASCENT...AND WEAK CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION...WAS RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL QPF. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.30-0.50 INCHES PER
3 HOURS WERE BEING FCST FROM THE LATEST RUC AND NAM. WHILE SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW. LATEST RUC AND NAM...AS WELL AS 4KM WRF-NMM...APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THAT HEAVY WET SNOW COULD DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF THE TX PNHDL AFTER 12Z.

..CARBIN.. 05/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

35400159 35390229 35300309 35660508 36500510 36720479
36840438 36880298 36710219 36250146 

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