[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011214 
FLZ000-011345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011214Z - 011345Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE AND LARGE-SCALE
BOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE AROUND FT MEYERS EXTENDING SSWWD TO
JEST WEST OF NAPLES FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL WHICH SUGGESTS THE
LINE IS ELEVATED. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A FORWARD
SPEED OF AROUND 25 KT SUGGEST ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL. THE BEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE NRN END
OF THE LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOW APEX AS THE LINE MOVES
INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBIE THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 05/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

25718122 26008169 26438164 27008099 27158025 26618005
25988068 

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