[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312243 
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312243Z - 312345Z

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. A
WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 23Z FOR MUCH OF E/NE TX.

INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN TX UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT BY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOIST
SECTOR EAST OF I-35 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF 40-50
KTS TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
TWO SCENARIOS FOR SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 1) HIGH BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN DRY AIR WILL
MOVE EAST INTO MOIST AXIS OVER ERN TX AND BECOME ROOTED IN MORE
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OR 2) THE FORCING FOR THE HIGH BASED
CONVECTION ACTS ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/SFC LOW OVER
NERN TX AND AID IN SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH
AND NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER ECENTRAL/NERN TX.

RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH AROUND
03Z WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THUS GIVEN A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF MAINLY WIND/HAIL THREAT...WW WILL LIKELY BE SVR.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454
33099425 32039399 30829411 

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