[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312127 
MSZ000-LAZ000-312300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...

VALID 312127Z - 312300Z

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

A STATIONARY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM  JUST S OF
MOBILE AL WWD THROUGH SRN LA JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS...THEN FARTHER
WWD TO JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED CLOUDY MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS HAVE LIKELY DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE TOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LA.
MOREOVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29458847 29569042 29719212 31119201 31259091 31078915
30868854 

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