[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312059 
OKZ000-312300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312059Z - 312300Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FROM WCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN 22-00Z.
OVERALL THREAT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE SUFFICIENT THAT A
SVR WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z.

RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE EXTENDED ALONG AN AXIS FROM ADM TO OUN TO CSM...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 AND DEWPTS WERE IN THE 38-44 DEGREE
RANGE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH. DEGREE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT COUPLED WITH SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM WCENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN
22-00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

34209592 34759621 35349710 35759825 35899888 35869945
35689980 35379980 35099965 34689904 34089757 33969705 

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