[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312015 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...EXTREME SW AL THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 312015Z - 312215Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...HEAVY
RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH PORTION OF THE LINE OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE INTO SW AL.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GA COAST
WWD THROUGH SRN GA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING
FROM SWRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH
PARTIAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED OVER SW GA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OBSERVED WHERE
THE LINE INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE.

FARTHER SW...THE LINE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CAP SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS PART OF
THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE LINE WILL
SUPPORT TRAINING/HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB...

30778793 31508369 31688173 31068144 30608208 30408341
30388636 30328796 

WWWW