[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311808 
TXZ000-312015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311808Z - 312015Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE IN THE
VICINITY OF SAT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED JUST NW OF SAT. A SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS NE-SW FROM THE LOW FROM SE OF DRT TO NEAR
AUS. ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS LIMITED TO
BELOW 850 MB...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER
60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MINIMAL CINH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW BY 20Z. THE DECREASING CINH FIELDS ARE NOTED
BY MORE VIGOROUS CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE
LAST HOUR. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT BY WV IMAGERY WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO UPDRAFTS...AND MAY
LIMIT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE SHORT TERM MODEL
SUITES SUGGEST WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AND STORMS DO INDEED
INITIATE...THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED
WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
SVR WIND/HAIL.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

30549797 30159922 29680032 29200042 28799941 29149829
29529725 30049716 30359736 

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