[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311740 
MSZ000-LAZ000-311945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311740Z - 311945Z

SERN LA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED SOON.

LATE THIS MORNING...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
BOOTHEEL OF MS WWD INTO SERN LA. THE SERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOVING SWD WHILE THE WRN PART OVER SRN LA HAS STALLED. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT.
MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER AND MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29499044 29959239 30969253 31409090 30928888 29948909 

WWWW