[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311734 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 311734Z - 312130Z

MOD TO HVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD OUT OF SERN CO/FAR NERN NM INTO FAR WRN OK/NWRN
TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA
THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE...1/2 TO 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /10 MB OVER 150 MILES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SWD INTO THE NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NNWLY
WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS
THE WRN PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE ON
THE NW SIDE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES OVER SERN CO...WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM N-S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEW AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOP
COOLING/CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER SWRN KS WILL ROTATE INTO THE WRN
OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT
5500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4000-4500 FT BY 21Z AS
DYNAMIC COOLING ENSUES WITH HVY PRECIP. THUS A CHANGEOVER TO MOD-HVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NERN NM...AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NRN UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA /LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY CO...NCENTRAL/NERN COLFAX COUNTY NM/ THROUGH 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

38250329 38250400 37840445 37090463 36740470 36180405
35820349 35630287 35980211 36790193 37740213 

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