[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311134 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SMALL PART OF
WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112...

VALID 311134Z - 311330Z

CLASSIC BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN MS
TO WRN GA THIS MORNING.  VAD WIND PROFILE AT MXX SHOWS A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL KINEMATIC PROFILE AOA 1KM WITH SPEED SHEAR REMAINING
WEAK.  INFLOW REGION TO THE STORMS RESIDES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR
MS VLY WHERE HIGH THETA-E PARCELS ARE CONTINUING TO FEED THE
UPDRAFTS.  SET-UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EXTREME SERN MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND WRN GA WHERE STORMS TRAIN.

MEANWHILE...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
TSTMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE/BOW AS THEY MATURE AND ORIENT N-S...OR
NORMAL TO THE MEAN 2-6 KM WIND VECTORS.  SO NOT ONLY IS HAIL A
RISK...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A THREAT.  A
CORRIDOR FROM 45 E KLUL-KAUO SEEMS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 14Z.  NOT ONLY WILL THE STORM
ORIENTATION W.R.T. FLOW REGIME FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE LOWER
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FARTHER EAST MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SATURATES.

..RACY.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

31088928 32788916 33918717 34008507 32508493 32048510
31518649 31118693 

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