[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310808 
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-310945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 111...

VALID 310808Z - 310945Z

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
WRN TN AND NWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE MID-MS UPPER LOW.  THIN BAND OF TSTMS EXISTS ALONG THE
FRONT WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD REGION OF TSTMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

THIN RIBBON OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F EXTENDS NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG.  MAIN AXIS OF
THE LLJ IS BEGINNING TO VEER AND IS BECOMING INTERCEPTED BY
INCREASING TSTMS FARTHER S.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS RAPIDLY CLOSING AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS.

MEANWHILE...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED STORMS FARTHER EWD ARE BEING FED
FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS UPSTREAM.  THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FARTHER FROM THE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND PROBABLY WEAKEN OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS IN A FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATED DOWNDRAFTS
AND PRODUCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE COALFIELDS OF SERN KY AND
THE ERN TN MNTS.  OTHERWISE...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR.

..RACY.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

34248809 35718750 36918591 37288387 36078381 34188551
34168612 

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