[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302118 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-302315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 302118Z - 302315Z

THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 105 OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE AS
SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL.

OVER IL AND WRN IND...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NEWD WITH AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUPERCELL APPROACHING THE I-39
CORRIDOR BETWEEN BLOOMINGTON AND ROCKFORD. THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELL AND OTHER SUPERCELLS SHOULD AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA BY 00Z
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG)...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

39138916 40668892 41568922 42088977 42538954 42578882
42468802 42208748 41428707 40538695 39648715 38918764
38738830 

WWWW