[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302106 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302106Z - 302300Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEFORE 00Z.
THUS A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 23Z.

STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND
OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN AR. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS
REMOVED FROM THIS STRONG ASCENT BY ABOUT 50-100 MILES AS EVIDENT BY
CU FIELD OVER THE LOW MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL CINH
REMAINS...ABOUT 25 J/KG...BUT ETAKF SOUNDINGS WHICH SEEM TO BE
VERIFYING BEST AT 20Z WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S/DEWPTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...INDICATED THAT CONTINUED HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING CINH BEFORE 23Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN TANDEM
WITH A 2 MB/2 HR PRESSURE FALL MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR JONESBORO
AR TO 30 EAST OF SHREVEPORT LA.

IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 50-60 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AFTER DARK WHEN LOW LEVEL RH VALUES/DEWPTS INCREASE AND LCL
HEIGHTS DECREASE.

..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35049020 34439127 33639207 32629324 32279331 32089312
32049258 32719113 33689001 34788945 

WWWW