[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301914 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA...SCENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...

VALID 301914Z - 302015Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW
TIME /20Z/ WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTING OVER NCENTRAL/NERN
IA AND FAR SCENTRAL MN...AHEAD OF SFC/UPPER LOW TRACK.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
NCENTRAL/NERN IA AHEAD OF 990 SFC LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF DSM. SFC
COLD FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS NCENTRAL IA INTO SCENTRAL
MN. WEST OF THIS FRONT...DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED TO THE NE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS INTO NERN IA BY 21Z. DEGREE OF SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR
ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES. THERE MAY BE A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NERN
PORTION OF WW 103 WHERE A SVR THREAT WILL EXIST BEYOND 20Z FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO.  GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT...AND TOR
WW 104 JUST EAST OF THIS AREA...WW 103 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN
IA. FARTHER NORTH IN SERN MN...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED THAT WOULD
ALSO INCLUDE PARTS OF WCENTRAL WI.

..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

41639370 42009413 42909381 44369320 44789175 44709043
43979045 43659227 41619313 

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