[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301808 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301808Z - 302015Z

THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE
ACROSS WRN IL AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
WITH AN HOUR.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD INTO IL
WITH UPPER 50S F TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS IN SRN IL. AS THE MOISTURE
SPREADS NWD ACROSS THE STATE...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THIS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ABOUT 40 KT TO 65
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...AS CELLS INITIATE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN IL...RAPID SUPERCELL FORMATION
SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT DUE TO A 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL MAKE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

37968984 39079073 39829067 40708985 41038913 41018838
40618767 40008748 38688753 38038777 37588841 37688906 

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