[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301923 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NW IL AND FAR NE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 301923Z - 302100Z

SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW 104. THE STORMS WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 104 DUE TO SFC HEATING AND AN
APPROACHING 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
BE NORTH OF I-80 IN ERN IA AND NORTH OF I-74 ACROSS NRN IL DUE TO 
SMALLER SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-2 KM LAPSE
RATES NEAR 9.0 C/KM...WILL ALSO HELP TRANSFER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS
TO THE SFC...CREATING A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE
FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

40099154 41119269 41899276 43389208 43689192 43679019
43678888 43438855 41658925 40208988 40079020 

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