[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281917 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-282115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...MD...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281917Z - 282115Z

SEVERAL SHORT-LINES OF CONVECTION ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN VA AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND/OR HAIL OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A LOW ACROSS
SCNTRL VA. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOW
WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 70 KT WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SFC-BASED ROTATING STORMS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN VA
INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILES IN MD SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. IN
ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE HAIL
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 03/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

36897597 37037701 37507785 38087801 38417772 38757701
38937619 38887546 38527501 

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