[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261212 
TXZ000-261315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...

VALID 261212Z - 261315Z

UNLESS TSTMS BEGIN TO SHOW A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...THE THREATS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW 84 IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  IF THIS OCCURS...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

H5 JETLET CONTINUES TO WRAP EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND WILL TRANSLATE
INTO ERN TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD TREND IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS TO BE OCCURRING
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR KTPL.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE WILL BE THE
WEAKENING EXPECTED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.  BUT...THIS MAY BE
MITIGATED BY THE STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CURRENT WW.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHALLOW AND
DOWNBURSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS WELL.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRONGER UVV/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE KSJT/KMAF AREAS SHORTLY.

..RACY.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29850174 31140153 32299968 32459649 31009636 29899757
29399892 29470113 

WWWW