[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261507 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL...SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261507Z - 261700Z

RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  TRENDS ARE STILL
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG RELATIVELY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  MODELS
...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES IS UNDERWAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS PROCESS
CONTINUES...THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN/REDEVELOP
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.  THIS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
HOWEVER...LONGER TERM PROSPECTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE
TO POTENTIAL CAPPING INFLUENCE OF BUILD RIDGE.

..KERR.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

30338874 31058876 32058821 32718679 32438500 31888315
31278215 30878171 30078133 29358117 28838181 28448263 

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