[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261137 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261137Z - 261330Z

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF
COASTAL AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION AS WEAK H5 RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AHEAD OF UPSTREAM
SRN PLAINS TROUGH.  TROPICAL AIR MASS/WARM FRONT... CHARACTERIZED BY
MID 70S DEW POINTS...WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD ON INCREASING SLY
FLOW AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OFFSHORE NRN FL.  STORMS
ARE LIKELY FEEDING OFF PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM MUCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATES...STORMS ARE APT TO
BACKBUILD WWD AND EXPAND EWD FROM EXTREME SRN AL TO NRN/CNTRL FL. 
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE
UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW AOA H85 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.

LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STEEP AS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNINGS...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER STORM.  MOREOVER...AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDED THREAT LATER
THIS MORNING AS UPDRAFTS BEGIN TO ROOT LOWER.

AS THE CONVECTION EVOLUTION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND LOCATIONS
FOR THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREATS BECOME EVIDENT...SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN-CNTRL FL/EXTREME
SRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..RACY.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...LIX...

30348851 31038683 30868477 30548254 30018126 28588069
27788086 28088313 28578659 

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