[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261020 
TXZ000-261215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...

VALID 261020Z - 261215Z

NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DARKENING TREND/JET STREAK MIGRATING INTO
THE TX BIG BEND AREA.  INCREASING UVV ON THE NOSE OF THIS JETLET AND
RESULTANT ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ARE PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.  

RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 800-1100 J/KG AND AN
AVERAGE 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  SO FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED WITH UPDRAFT BASES
AOA 4800 FT AGL.  BUT...ONE OR TWO TSTMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO
N-S LINEAR STRUCTURES AND BEGIN TO BOW.  THIS COULD INCREASE THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY S OF A KSJT-KFTW LINE.  VAD WIND
PROFILERS FROM AREA RADARS SHOW THAT THE LAYER OF STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS THIN...LESS THAN 500 METERS THICK.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN.

STRONGEST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING MCS.  THAT WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE
TSTMS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 45S KMAF-35S KABI-SEP-45NW KAUS-45S
KJCT-KP07-45S KMAF THROUGH 14Z.  BACKBUILDING OF THE TSTMS INTO THE
SANDERSON-FORT STOCKTON AREAS WILL PROBABLY PROLONG ANY SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MORNING.

..RACY.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

29680174 30880299 32050274 32910151 32999810 29659829 

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