[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260656 
TXZ000-260830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260656Z - 260830Z

AN INCREASING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX THIS MORNING.  A
WW MAY BECOME REQUIRED.

RECENT RADAR SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ACROSS WCNTRL
TX NEAR/NW OF KSJT.  THIS REGION IS BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A NM UPPER
LOW.  AS THE LOW ROTATES CLOSER...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND SUPPORT CONTINUED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  

RUC40 OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARCELS FEEDING THESE STORMS
WILL ORIGINATE FROM OVER SCNTRL TX AND MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM
900-1100 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL AVERAGE AROUND
40 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE DOMINANT THREAT.  INITIAL...AND A LARGE SHARE OF ANY SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT IF STORMS CAN BUILD SWD INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT... DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN LATER THIS MORNING FROM NEAR/S OF A ROCK
SPRINGS...LLANO...GEORGETOWN...WACO LINE.  

ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK NEWD FROM THE WCNTRL TX ACTIVITY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...PERHAPS REACHING TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND WACO BY 12Z.

..RACY.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

32220158 32709911 32419731 31949705 31029698 29659713
29399905 29300095 30930172 

WWWW