[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250812 
ARZ000-250945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78...

VALID 250812Z - 250945Z

TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED TO SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS SINCE 06Z ACROSS
NWRN AR...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CELLS ARE LIKELY BEING FED FROM UNSTABLE
NEAR SURFACE BASED PARCELS UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE
MUCAPES OF 900-1000 J/KG ARE COMMON.  KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE NOT ONLY CONDUCIVE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION...BUT ALSO
BACKBUILDING...WHICH HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/N OF KFSM.  THOUGH THE
STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED...RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE
IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD LOCALLY
PRODUCE NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

UNLESS STORMS BECOME MORE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED.  BUT...WILL CONTINUE
WW 78 UNTIL THE 10Z EXPIRATION.

..RACY.. 03/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

34969442 35759434 36479355 36459181 35709101 34759155 

WWWW