[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251607 
FLZ000-251800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79...

VALID 251607Z - 251800Z

CONTINUE WW.

SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
COAST SHORTLY...AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE COULD TEND
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...30 KT
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BIG BEND.  

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...BUT SURFACE HEATING OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST INCREASING
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS CLUSTER MOVES BACK ONSHORE.  THIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/NORTH OF CEDAR KEY INTO THE OCALA AREA BY THE
18-19Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30038389 30108307 29928221 29618174 29168169 28958187
28778225 28818263 

WWWW