[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231346 
FLZ000-231445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75...

VALID 231346Z - 231445Z

REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING...AND AREAS FARTHER
 SE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT
WW AS SFC HEATING INCREASES BUOYANCY.

PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND NOTED BOTH WITH CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...AND ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE SRQ REGION.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND BUOYANCY PROFILES STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...PER BLEND
OF MLB VWP AND 12Z MFL RAOB...CONVECTIVE MODE AND ORIENTATION
APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ATTM.  ONE OFFSETTING
FACTOR WHICH MAY REKINDLE SEVERE THREAT OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER...IS DIABATIC SFC HEATING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN
PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL AND SRN FL.  MODIFIED
MFL RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH REMOVED WITH ONLY 2-3 DEG F
MORE SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 72-74 F AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED ALONG
SE COAST.  THIS YIELDS MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...DESPITE SOME VEERING OF SFC
WINDS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

28458080 27188008 26408001 26188019 25908081 25788144
26078201 27418313 29348250 29348051 

WWWW