[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231121 
FLZ000-231315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75...

VALID 231121Z - 231315Z

BROAD BELT OF CONVECTION -- ALIGNED NE-SW -- COVERS MUCH OF NRN AND
W-CENTRAL FL.  A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE
EMBEDDED IN SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BAND AS OF 1115Z...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS AS EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PENINSULA...AND AS
CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD.  OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS
ARE EVIDENT IN A CLUSTER WELL OFFSHORE...LEADING EDGE 60-75 NM W SRQ
ATTM...WHICH COULD AFFECT SWRN PORTIONS WW IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS
TOGETHER ACROSS SHELF WATERS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.

INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST...BUOYANT AND SHEARED.  SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORT NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED
PARCELS...LITTLE TO NO CINH...AND AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  THOSE SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH REGIONAL
VWP...SUGGEST AROUND 200 J/KG SRH ON 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. ANTICIPATED
VEERING OF SFC FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTURE OF STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CAROLINAS -- MAY REDUCE CONVERGENCE/S-R INFLOW
AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS LATER THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...FOR TIME
BEING...TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

27418115 27418313 29348250 29348051 

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