[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230811 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...74...

VALID 230811Z - 231015Z

GENERAL DECREASING TREND NOTED WITH BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED AT 8Z
FROM ATL METRO AREA SWWD TO INVOF TOI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS WWS -- LOCALLY FASTER WHERE
LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS ACCELERATE.  ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY BE CANCELED
BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATIONS IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PIEDMONT FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG LINE FROM
CAE...AGS...30 N MCN...TO INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BOUNDARY INVOF LGC.  THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE DISTINCT DEPTHS OF
INFLOW-LAYER ELEVATION AGL...RELATED TO SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER OF
DIABATIC COOLING S OF PIEDMONT FRONT AND MORE STATICALLY
STABLE/DEEPER FRONTAL LAYER OVER NRN GA.  PRIND SEVERE PROBABILITIES
-- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS -- IS DIMINISHING AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO
SEGMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE STABLE LAYER
IS SHALLOWEST. LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN NEWD
SHIFT OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS AWAY FROM THIS AREA...AND
RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COMPONENT MORE PARALLEL TO
CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

33258565 33508563 34158247 33148244 32958349 31048421
31068692 33248615 

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