[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230735 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-230900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME
SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA S OF WW 73

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230735Z - 230900Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DISCUSSION AREA BECAUSE OF INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM GULF ACROSS CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION.

EXTENSIVE PRECIP PLUME IS EVIDENT FROM NERN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL
PENINSULA...MOVING TOWARD JAX. AIR MASS NW OF THAT AREA IS
RECOVERING -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC AMIDST 50 KT LLJ. 
INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED WITH INLAND EXTENT
ATTM...WITH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY PRESENTLY CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND SWD OVER SHELF WATERS AND NRN LOOP CURRENT. 
HOWEVER... CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA OFF GULF MAY RESULT IN DOWNWARD
MIXING AND INLAND SHIFT OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS MORE OF
CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW
NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT 2000-2500
J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE BECAUSE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 8 DEG
C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
FORCING WELL TO N OVER GA.  HOWEVER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS
OF 55-65 KT -- AND 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH FOR ANY RIGHT-MOVING
STORMS...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

30958653 31028586 31068514 30998344 30858323 30568333
30388375 30128415 29628502 29418544 29648619 29918659 

WWWW