[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230147 
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN NERN MS / NWRN AL / SWRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...

VALID 230147Z - 230315Z

STRONG CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW AND FORECAST INSTABILITY
OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH DURATION
OF WW.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH TIME
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AS STORMS MOVE NEWD WHERE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES
AREA-WIDE LAST HOUR WHILE PROFILERS SHOW VEERING 850 MB WIND
FIELDS...SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE DECREASE. 

NONETHELESS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY ERN SECTIONS
OF WW WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATEST. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34098683 34008920 36939018 36938761 

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