[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221159 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN MS...S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...62...

VALID 221159Z - 221400Z

LINE OF TSTMS -- BROKEN AND RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER SWRN LA BUT
SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN NARROW ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS WRN MS -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER REMAINDER OF BOTH
WWS.  NRN PORTION OF LINE MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 61 -- OVER
E-CENTRAL MS -- WHILE MIDDLE SEGMENT AFFECTS AREAS INVOF MCB
CURRENTLY NOT IN WW.  AS THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR MINOR WIND
DAMAGE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
1. PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AND HIGHER STATIC STABILITY IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD EXTENT...AND
2. LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INSTEAD OF DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR MODE...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE APPEARS TOO SMALL ATTM TO
WARRANT ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW FARTHER E IN MS.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUOYANCY OF NEAR
1000 J/KG OVER SRN LA INDICATES SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THERE...HOWEVER OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING.  BOTH WWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM W-E
BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND.

..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31219015 31299174 32629087 32739027 33209004 33538988
33508934 

29599131 29589377 30199374 30929308 31289175 31229108 

WWWW