[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220957 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-221200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN LA...SERN AR...WRN/CENTRAL
MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...

VALID 220957Z - 221200Z

PRIMARY LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 945Z FROM
NATCHITOCHES PARISH NEWD TOWARD GWO -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD OVER WW AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. BRIEF TORNADO FROM BOW ECHO OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED OVER NWRN PART
OF WW BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EVIDENT FROM ELD AREA
SWD...AND MOVING EWD ACROSS LA/AR BORDER REGION.  ELEVATED MUCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG EVIDENT NEAR AR/LA BORDER BASED ON RUC
SOUNDINGS....SUPPORTED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
BUOYANCY IS ROOTED NEARER TO SFC WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT
PRECIP-RELATED COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BY ONGOING CONVECTION MAY
PRECLUDE SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS FROM REACHING WW AREA LATER. 
55-65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF AREA...SUPPORTING BOTH
SUPERCELL AND BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

33509280 33508930 31239012 31239353 

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