[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220943 
LAZ000-TXZ000-221145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SE TX...SMALL PART OF NWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...

VALID 220943Z - 221145Z

BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL --
EVIDENT AT 930Z FROM HOU METRO AREA NEWD PAST JASPER INTO N-CENTRAL
LA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SERN PORTION WW WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF CLL.  NWRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED AS
SFC DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH...STABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS THROUGH CAA AND DRY ADVECTION.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES ACROSS WW BASED ON VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  70-80 KT 0-6
KM SHEARS ARE EVIDENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER AREA...THOUGH SOME
WEAKNESS IN ABSOLUTE SPEEDS AROUND 2 KM REDUCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
SIZE.  THERMODYNAMICALLY...AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE -- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SFC.  ROUGHLY
1000 J/KG MLCAPE ROOTED AT SFC ALSO EVIDENT OVER AND JUST WW HOU
AREA WITH LESS THAN 50 J/KG SBCIN FROM THERE EWD TOWARD BPT AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

29499650 30949630 31069580 31619575 32329487 32299340
29539387 

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