[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220820 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OK AND WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59...

VALID 220820Z - 220945Z

STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE BIFURCATED INTO TWO
MAIN LOBES -- WAA REGIME ACROSS AR/LA/SE TX AND SMALL AREA OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT JUST AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW.  LATTER REGIME
STILL MAY AFFECT WW...ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
OCCLUDED FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NEAR TUL SSEWD ACROSS PUSHMATAHA
COUNTY.  AIRMASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ANY CONVECTION
WHICH DOES DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT HAS NOW MOVED E OF
WW.  ROUGHLY 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUPPORT
1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME WRN
AR...DECREASING TO 800-1200 J/KG OVER NERN OK. THEREFORE...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS RATHER SCANT OVER WW AREA ATTM...MOST OF WW
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION...FOR POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS BEHIND FRONT.  IF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BY ABOUT 930-10Z...ADDITIONAL
WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

36729561 36719348 34259357 34249566 

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