[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220059 
OKZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220059Z - 220300Z

ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF OK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE STORMS TONIGHT MAY NECESSITATE NEW WW ISSUANCE. 

AT 0030Z...VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF AVK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH 06Z.
SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY STALLED IN AN ARC SHAPE FROM 40N OKC TO
45 E OKC TO NEAR DUA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF OKC IN THE DRIER
AIR...SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW EAST OF DRYLINE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 500 J/KG...ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN GENERATION OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SEVERE THREAT IS CONFINED TO ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS ERN/NRN OK. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE NEW WW LATER TONIGHT IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
EAST OF DRYLINE.

..BANACOS.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34899673 35779695 36669715 36839671 36889571 36689496
36249473 35239460 34629457 34239462 34059504 34049554
34079616 34119640 

WWWW