[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220229 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK....ERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 57...

VALID 220229Z - 220400Z

SEVERE TSTMS...SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 57 OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR...AND NWRN
LA. A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EAST OF WATCH 57 WITHIN THE HOUR.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS INCREASING
AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN TX LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVE EAST
FROM NWRN TX AND SRN OK. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN TX AND INTO PARTS OF
SERN OK AND WRN LA REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY INTENSE
DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST NAM FCSTS INDICATE
INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND HIGH CONVECTIVE QPF WILL SHIFT EAST FROM
THE ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA OVERNIGHT. COINCIDENT
WITH THIS STRONG FORCING WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND ROTATION. AT
PRESENT...GREATEST EFFECTIVE SRH FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
EXISTS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH... INDICATED BY HATCHED AREA
ON MCD GRAPHIC...CELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY
PRODUCE TORNADOES...HAIL...AND HIGH WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

29539503 29679672 32759602 34369569 34329315 34299222
33659173 33009192 32659217 32339272 31499347 29889401
29759407