[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212245 
FLZ000-220045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212245Z - 220045Z

TSTMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN FL EARLY THIS
EVENING. TIME OF DAY AND ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL AND ERN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE
AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BY FL STANDARDS WITH MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...MESOSCALE FOCUSING IN THE FORM OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE SCNTRL PART
OF THE PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING
30KT...WAS RESULTING IN A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE A DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT OR BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPDRAFTS
CROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF TPA TO BOW TO VRB...TIME OF DAY AND
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 03/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

26278004 26428133 27658249 28048279 28878261 28608083
27888050 

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