[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211124 
NEZ000-SDZ000-211630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 211124Z - 211630Z

HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION BEGINNING BY 12Z AND LASTING THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NEB IN
AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF STRONG UPPER
JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A VORT MAX
ROTATING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
A FOCUS OF MID LEVEL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT ABOVE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE 1-2
KM LAYER NOTED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP COLUMN OF VERTICAL MOTION
OVER WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OCCLUSION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER KS SHOULD AID IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF
EXPECTED HVY SNOW AREA.

TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT LOW LEVEL CAA/WET-BULB EFFECTS
WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE INTO
NCENTRAL NEB THROUGH 12Z. BY 15Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KEITH COUNTY TO WHEELER COUNTY.

..CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

41909810 42819820 43469916 43679995 43570122 42470221
41530204 40890143 41349854 

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