[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211343 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-211515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 211343Z - 211515Z

INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO ERN/SRN PORTION WW AND
GENERALLY WEAKENED...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SRN AREA W AUS AND NW SAT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH
AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
RAOBS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED JUST ABOVE SFC IN
SAT-JCT-AUS AREA...WITH LESS OF A MIDLEVEL/CAPE-ROBBING WARM LAYER
THAN FARTHER N.  SECONDARY LINE OF TSTMS FROM NEAR DUA SWWD TO
APPROXIMATELY 30 NNE JCT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SRN PORTION IN TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARE GREATEST.  SFC DRYLINE IS ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS NW
TX...ANALYZED FROM NEAR GAG-FSI TO CLAY COUNTY TX...THEN SWWD TO
ABOUT 20 E JCT.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BEHIND
WESTERN CONVECTIVE LINE...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF
SFC DRYLINE...MITIGATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER WW TIME FRAME.

..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

33849793 33839431 29909701 29930053 

WWWW