[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210939 
OKZ000-TXZ000-211215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...CENTRAL/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210939Z - 211215Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...WITHIN BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY A
SEP... ACT...TYR LINE NWD TO VICINITY I-40 IN OK.  MAIN THREAT IS
LARGE HAIL...THOUGH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR AS
WELL.  SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE WW IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

AIR MASS ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. 
RAPIDLY SHARPENING MOIST/DRY SIGNATURE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATES STRENGTHENING VERTICAL CIRCULATION AND ASCENT/DESCENT
COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  PLUME OF ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WAA INVOF 35-45 KT
LLJ.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 
REMOVING SHEAR FROM NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH
STILL MAY REACH 300-400 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTING ROTATION IN CELLS
AND ENHANCED HAIL PRODUCTION.  WRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MARKED BY DRYLINE...ANALYZED ATTM FROM NEAR CSM SWD TO
CONCHO COUNTY TX.  CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY...DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING EWD AFTER SUNRISE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

31439905 33559861 35259856 35999821 35969661 35619576
34919564 33549561 31869606 31459744 

WWWW