[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200336 
TXZ000-200500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...

VALID 200336Z - 200500Z

...SEVERE STORM HAZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCH 54...
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION WHERE
A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
JACKSON...WHARTON...FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOIST AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SR
INFLOW TO LINEAR MCS COULD PROMOTE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN
THESE AREAS.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WEAKLY ORGANIZED MASS OF STORMS CONTINUES
MOVING GRADUALLY EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR LFK
TO ESF. CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG W-E FRONT AND AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL...WITH FRONTAL ZONE APPEARING TO LIFT NWD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR IS
FCST OVER THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ATOP THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT
FOR HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH...EAST OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 03/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

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