[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200800 
TXZ000-201000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL BEND REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200800Z - 201000Z

ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS JIM
WELLS/LIVE OAK COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE ESEWD -- ESSENTIALLY DOWN LOWER
NUECES RIVER REGION TOWARD CRP BAY -- THROUGH 10Z.  OTHER TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER SW BETWEEN ALI-LRD AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD AS WELL. 
MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL.  BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THREAT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN GULF BOW ECHO...FROM
75 SSE PSX WNWWD ACROSS PORT ARANSAS AND MUSTANG ISLAND...JUST N
CRP...TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY. 
FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD TOWARD LRD.  BOUNDARIES ARE QUASISTATIONARY
NW OF CRP AND MOVING SWD 10-15 KT OVER COASTAL BARRIER ISLANDS...AND
SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER LATTER AREAS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FORMED AT OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION
OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY..AND SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  MODIFIED CRP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000
J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AIDED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
ALTHOUGH VWP/RUC WIND PROFILES SHOW PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM
AGL HODOGRAPH LAYER...INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND
ENHANCED HAIL POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CLUSTER BECAUSE OF
BOTH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE VORTICITY/LIFT.  LEFT SPLITS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY
SUCH ACTIVITY MOVING ENEWD TOWARD REFUGIO COUNTY.

..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...

27809875 28269783 28439747 28349710 28019683 27709696
27639733 27619886 

WWWW