[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192332 
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-200130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192332Z - 200130Z

PORTIONS OF ERN TX AROUND THE SABINE RIVER...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN
AND SRN LA...MAY NEED A SEVERE TSTM WATCH DURING THE EVENING. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL.

AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
SITUATED ACROSS SWRN LA EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG AND
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE UPPER TX GULF COAST REGION
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
REGION WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY QUESTION
AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER ORGANIZING MCS OVER TX MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING...OR WHETHER A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS
DEVELOPS FROM ACTIVITY NOW OVER BEAUREGARD PARISH. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA WOULD APPEAR TO SUGGEST THE LATTER SCENARIO AND THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

29739369 29539451 31029452 31259280 31509151 30379157
30009157 

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