[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192238 
TXZ000-192345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192238Z - 192345Z

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL
TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING
PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST WILL BE NEEDED
SHORTLY.

STORM ARE INCREASING IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM WEST TX. ACTIVITY IS MOST
ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW OVER
WILLIAMSON COUNTY ATTM WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MILAM...ROBERTSON...AND LEON COUNTIES.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER GONZALES COUNTY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED
AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES...AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE TROUGH. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...35-40KT MID LEVEL WLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND
THREAT MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND
SPREADS EAST TO THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

29709433 28949642 28429760 28029875 28359876 29089864
29769743 29929694 30979674 31719413 30879372 

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