[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161719 
FLZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN / CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161719Z - 161915Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
FL...WHILE OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL FL.  THOUGH WW NOT IMMINENT
ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF
THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF. 
THOUGH LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE NWRN FL
COAST ATTM -- BETWEEN TLH AND CTY...LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION SUGGESTS THAT ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

FROM ROUGHLY CTY TO GNV SWD...THINNER HIGH OVERCAST IS ALLOWING SOME
HEATING / DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR.  WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPPING INDICATED BY MORNING
TBW RAOB CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING APPEARS
TO BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS INVOF WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. 

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO A DIRECTION W OF S OVER MUCH OF
THE PENINSULA...STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /60 TO 70 KT/ SUPPORTS A
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  GREATEST THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / LINE
SEGMENTS COULD FORM.  ATTM...QUESTIONS REGARDING EVENTUAL STORM
COVERAGE MAKE WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN.  SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 03/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29708342 29818323 29978231 30018133 29098085 28378110
27908236 27808282 28558265 28948266 29158277 29188305 

WWWW