[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161022 
FLZ000-GAZ000-161215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161022Z - 161215Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO EXTREME SRN GA. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL FL WWD INTO THE NRN GULF. SQUALL
LINE WITH LEWP STRUCTURES PERSISTS WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT N OF
THIS BOUNDARY FROM S OF TALLAHASSEE TO E OF APALACHICOLA...MOVING
EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. THE LINE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS MORNING
AND CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. RECENT VWP AND RUC
SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH TIME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE...INCLUDING BOW
ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
DOWNSTREAM NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 03/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

28908261 29338294 30108369 30678318 30838158 29538150
28878208 

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