[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160648 
FLZ000-160915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160648Z - 160915Z

A LOCALIZED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER THE S CNTRL FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
APALACHICOLA AREA AFTER 08Z.

EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY NWD AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES
OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WITHIN THE
ZONE OF LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW A LINE OF
STORMS WITH A NRN END COMMA HEAD AND REAR INFLOW NOTCH ABOUT 60 SM W
OF THE APALACHICOLA AREA. THE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25-30 KT
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY 08Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH THE LINE APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...IT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO EXIST AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS AND MOISTENS IN VICINITY OF THE NWD MOVING FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LARGE.

..DIAL.. 03/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

30338597 30518517 30378438 29978446 29668506 

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